Dernière mise à jour : 19 févr. 2021
Less 37 days before the fifty-ninth American presidential elections.
The outgoing president is the candidate proposed by the republican party. Even if polls announce that a large part of the Americans prefer Joe Biden, the candidate of the democrats, there is a possibility for D. Trump to be re-elected. We remember the general surprise on November 8th 2016, when the republican was elected while polls have announced a victory for Hillary Clinton.
After 4 years of Trump policy, the political way Biden seduces. He was Obama’s Vice-president and a senator… J.Biden is not the most progressive candidate of his political party, but he embodies a new policy compared to Trump. He chose Kamala Harris - an immigrant’s daughter- as his Vice-president, his party is more progressive and open-minded about immigration than the republican party, he has a sense of diplomacy and communication… According to many Americans, J. Biden could embody more efficiently the function than D. Trump.
However, D. Trump can be re-elected, and that for several reasons. As regards the question of the national-evangelist’s vote, Trump is the favorite. He is supported by that powerful electoral basis. With the slogan “Keep America great again” we can imagine that the outgoing president is going to renew his immigration policy, and that pleases the national-evangelist and conservative electorate.
Furthermore, Trump’s administration plays the security card. The actual vice-president, Mike Pence, said a few weeks ago “You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America “. Since the death of George Floyd and the violent marches, the republican party use these events against the democrat party and his candidate which promotes the changes brought by the Black Lives Matter.
“Order and Security”. These words sum up the ideas of republican party and D. Trump can use it to win on the national-evangelist votes.
Last Month, president Trump attacked Kamala Harris, the vice president of J.Biden if he is elected. D. Trump questioned the nationality of the woman and he provoked her. K. Harris represents all what the Trump’s electors reject. She is a woman, a progressive democrat, she is an immigrant’s daughter, she supports the legalization of medical drugs, she is against tough immigration policy, against climate change… She scares a lot of rural people, and when Trump provoke her and said that she is a danger, he wins votes.
Otherwise, Trump feeds fear and the Covid-19 pandemic hurts him but also helps him. If he can find a way to mobilize these fears, he may have a chance.
Finally, D. Trump can use the media efficiently with his position of president. His communication could be a determinant aspect which could impact the election.
With recent accusations of the New York Times about D. Trump and the taxes and the TV debate of the 29th September, the undecided electors could make up their mind.
Eliott MILCENT-PATRIE T°3